La crisis que se avecina nos llevará a “la tercera ola”
Mi amigo Quique, me ha enviado una reflexión que realmente me parece muy acertada. Estoy plenamente deacuerdo con él, tanto que le he pedido permiso para publicarlo en www.netocracia.net
Es mas, pienso que esta crisis que se avecina probablemente será el impulso definitivo, desgraciadamente debe de ser asÃ, para pasar a la nueva ola que ya decia el matrimonio Tofler, que gobernará definitivamente el mundo: La sociedad de la información. Esta nueva crisis no será mas que los coletazos de una sociedad industrial basada en los tangibles y en el poseer, en su camino hacia el cambio de una sociedad basada en el ser, y en el conocimiento: los intangibles. Hay muchas opiniones al respecto. esta es una de ellas que tiene que ver con el cambio social en los jovenes
Gracias Quique.
Hay varios signos que apuntan a que está empezando una crisis
económica que puede tener una importancia y repercusión solo
comparable con la del crack de 1929. Como hize con la serie de
mensajes que os envié respecto a la crisis inmobiliaria española (que
no ha hecho mas que empezar) voy a tratar de dar datos y argumentos en
relación con esta otra.
En la raiz de la crisis está lo mismo que en la burbuja inmobiliaria
española: el excesivo endeudamiento. Y el endeudamiento no es solo de
los particulares, ni siquiera es el mas importante, sino también el
endeudamiento de las empresas y de los gobiernos. Para empezar un dato
(GDP es Producto Interior Bruto): “the accumulation of debt in the
United States cannot continue much longer. In the last century the
ratio of debt to GDP hovered between 120% and 160%. In 1929 debt rose
to 260%. Now the ratio of debt to GDP is at a mad 300% and has been
growing over the past year. Something has to give.”
Y para seguir, las palabras de la semana pasada del Secretario del
Tesoro de EEUU: The crisis of confidence in credit markets is likely
to last longer than previous financial shocks of the past two decades,
Hank Paulson, Treasury secretary, warned on Tuesday. He said the
uncertainty in credit markets would last longer than the turmoil that
followed the Asian crisis and the Russian default of the 1990s or the
Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s.
Hay quien acusa a Alan Greenspan, anterior jefe de la Reserva Federal,
porque para solucionar la crisis de las “puntocom”, que duró del 2000
al 2003, lo que hizo fué bajar los tipos de interés en contra de lo
recomendable para favorecer el crédito y por tanto la inversión, cosa
que efectivamente ocurrió, desencadenando una burbuja inmobiliaria y
otra bursatil (la segunda no tan reconocida) que son las que han dado
lugar a la crisis crediticia (subprime, hedge funds, …). Es decir,
transformó una crisis en otra, alargando y agravando el problema
global.
El mismo lo ha medio-reconocido ayer, alegando que habÃa “fuerzas
globales” que le impidieron subir los tipos para evitar la burbuja
inmobiliaria
(http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/greenspan-says-tried-failed-raise/story.aspx?guid=%7B1D33BEBD%2D13EF%2D4729%2DB8F5%2D66235BA5626E%7D)
y a la vez acusa al actual equipo de estar actuando mal bajándolos,
pues descontrolan la inflacción, que es para lo que se deben regular
los tipos. El caso es que estas declaraciones el dia antes de que la
FED decida sobre los tipos de interés han hecho que baje hoy la bolsa
americana.
El Banco Central Londinense es mas tajante aún, y acusa mas
abiertamente a los otros organismos homólogos, europeo, americano y
japonés, por las inyecciones de dinero y bajadas de tipos que han
llevado a cabo para frenar la quiebra de empresas e inversiones
importantes, argumentado que están “premiando” a quienes han invertido
arriesgadamente, lo que tendrá como consecuencia que la burbuja
crediticia se infle aún mas antes de estallar:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/09/12/business/boe.php?page=1. Eso es
lo que pasó en el 29, por cierto.
Creo que por hoy es suficiente, pero como conclusión, si los mas
influyentes en la economÃa mundial, los que mas saben, los que manejan
esas herramientas económicas que según nos han inculcado harÃan
imposible que se repitiera un crack como el del 29, resulta que ya
están acusándose unos a otros y discrepando sobre las medidas a
adoptar, entonces es que esas supuestas medidas no son tan efectivas,
o no son tan aplicables, o no son tan claras. Segunda conclusión,
todos ellos están viendo ya que la crisis va a mas y que mal remedio
tiene, como el insumergible Titanic, y los que están a cargo solo
tratan de alargar el momento, pues no está en sus manos solucionar el
grandÃsimo endeudamiento que, repito como empecé, es el problema real,
se mire como se mire y se haga lo que se haga.
No related posts.
April 2nd, 2011 at 8:54 pm
[...] tras ver la revolución del mundo árabe, hechos heroicos como la publicación de wikileaks, la crisis global de valores y económica, el cancer de los mercados financieros para la sociedad del bienestar, nuestra forma de pensar [...]
June 14th, 2011 at 5:28 am
Hi! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could find a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having trouble finding one? Thanks a lot!
November 9th, 2011 at 4:32 am
I was searching for essential info on this field. The info was important as I am about to launch my own portal. Thanks for offering a missing link in my business.
November 10th, 2011 at 8:27 pm
Thank you for the sensible critique. Me & my neighbor were just preparing to do a little research on this. We got a grab a book from our area library but I think I learned more clear from this post. I am very glad to see such fantastic information being shared freely out there.
November 11th, 2011 at 12:37 pm
One particular amazing, delightful method to eradicate pimples are in order to replacement a lot more berry in your diet regime. This confirmed approach can help the face area evident up very quickly. You might make smoothies every day or perhaps lunch time or simply start being active . bananas in your greens to create a wonderful dinner.
November 14th, 2011 at 12:55 am
Its like you read my mind! You seem to know so much about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you can do with some pics to drive the message home a bit, but other than that, this is magnificent blog. A fantastic read. I’ll definitely be back.
November 16th, 2011 at 8:45 am
Hi! This is my first comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and tell you I truly enjoy reading your blog posts. Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that deal with the same subjects? Thanks!
November 17th, 2011 at 3:40 am
Hey Tom76, where did you get your ipad from? Do you have it already? I got mine from http://netspecials.tk but I don’t have it in my hands yet. I only got an email so far that I should expect it within 7-14 business days. I hope it arrives soon!
November 18th, 2011 at 1:47 pm
Do you guys have a facebook or myspace fan page? I looked for one on facebook or twitter but couldn’t find it, I’d love to become a fan!
November 23rd, 2011 at 11:21 pm
Hi this is a wonderful post. I’m going to mail this to my pals. I stumbled on this while searching on yahoo I’ll be sure to come back. thanks for sharing.
December 13th, 2011 at 2:30 pm
I like what you guys are up too. Such intelligent work and reporting! Carry on the superb works guys I’ve incorporated you guys to my blogroll. I think it will improve the value of my website
.
December 25th, 2011 at 9:22 pm
Good write-up, I am regular visitor of one’s site, maintain up the excellent operate, and It’s going to be a regular visitor for a lengthy time. “He who seizes the right moment is the right man.” by Johann von Goethe.
December 26th, 2011 at 2:42 am
Simply wanna comment that you have a very nice site, I enjoy the style and design it actually stands out.
December 26th, 2011 at 11:40 am
I am not really excellent with English but I find this really leisurely to translate.
January 10th, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Merely wanna admit that this is invaluable , Thanks for taking your time to write this. “I’ve had a perfectly wonderful evening. But this wasn’t it.” by Groucho Marx.
January 27th, 2012 at 11:48 am
Concerning the junk e-mail on fb and their crappy world wide web hosting/server tempo they’ve some truly fairly significant concerns IMO.
February 10th, 2012 at 3:53 pm
We wish to thank you yet again for the gorgeous ideas you gave Jesse when preparing a post-graduate research and, most importantly, for providing each of the ideas within a blog post. Provided we had known of your website a year ago, we’d have been rescued from the needless measures we were participating in. Thank you very much.
February 15th, 2012 at 4:06 pm
I beloved up to you will obtain performed proper here. The sketch is tasteful, your authored subject matter stylish. nonetheless, you command get bought an edginess over that you would like be handing over the following. ill surely come further previously again as precisely the similar just about very ceaselessly within case you shield this hike.
February 22nd, 2012 at 12:20 am
I’m no longer certain where you are getting your information, but good topic. I must spend a while finding out more or figuring out more. Thank you for excellent information I used to be on the lookout for this information for my mission.
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:18 am
I was looking through some of your articles on this site and I believe this web site is very informative! Continue posting.